Market Analysis The consultants hired by the Office of Planning to conduct a market analysis of the area concluded that there are minimal and limited opportunities for office and retail development, respectively; however, there is strong opportunity for housing development. The market analysis looked at the planning area as well as a larger South of the Freeway submarket including Southwest and Capitol Riverfront. Within the planning area, there are 11,768 people in 6,600 households – population growth in the area has been half of the city-wide rate of 12.5% since 2000. With the projected influx of new housing to the area, the number of households could increase by 2,000 by the year 2020, a possible increase of 30%. The planning area is a bit older, with fewer children and less affluent, but more educated than the city as a whole.  

Housing values in the South of the Freeway submarket increased by 3.9% since 2003, which is lower than the 6.3% growth seen citywide. As a result, housing is relatively affordable compared to the city as a whole, both home prices and rents. Part of the reason for the relative affordability is the amount of subsidized housing that is in the planning area. There are seven DCHA developments and 19% of all units in the planning area are subsidized, compared to 13% citywide. Approximately 14% of the planned housing units in the planning area are projected to be subsidized and any public land that is redeveloped will contain a subsidized component, so income diversity will likely be retained. Prior to 2013, there had been no new rental apartment development in the planning area in decades. Physical barriers, the lack of retail and amenities, limited “buzz”, and insufficient return on investment has quelled housing development in the area. With the opening of Camden South Capitol in April 2013 and Sky House in early 2014, that dynamic is starting to change. For-sale housing has been built more recently, including Capitol Square at the Waterfront in the early 2000s, Potomac Place Condos in 2005, and the conversion of Potomac Place Tower and Waterfront Tower later in the decade. The newcomers to the area will most likely be younger and wealthier with more disposable income to spend out at restaurants and other retailers.